A sustained move above Rs 145,000 could extend the recovery towards Rs 146,000.

Gold price prediction today: Prospects of US Federal Reserve rate hikes are a major headwind for gold and the recent gains may be capped due to that, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Here’s what he has to say:Gold has staged a strong recovery towards Rs 144,000, reversing part of the recent correction and improving its immediate intraday structure. On the 15-minute chart, prices have moved above the Bollinger Band average of Rs 142,634 and are currently testing the upper band near Rs 143,988, indicating improving bullish momentum.However, the sharp upward move also suggests that prices may face some consolidation before extending gains. Immediate support is placed around Rs 143,000-142,600, followed by Rs 141,300-141,000. Holding above the Rs 142,600 average would keep the short-term recovery intact. On upside, Rs 144,500-145,000 represents the first resistance zone, followed by Rs 145,800-146,000, where the previous rally encountered selling pressure.A sustained move above Rs 145,000 could extend the recovery towards Rs 146,000. Conversely, failure to sustain above Rs 144,000, followed by a break below Rs 142,600, could trigger profit-booking towards Rs 141,300. Overall, immediate technical bias has improved to positive, although the price extension above the upper Bollinger Band warrants caution. A sustained hold above Rs 143,000-142,600 would be important to maintain the recovery.Gold has rebounded above $4,100/oz, recovering from the previous week’s correction as investors weighed stronger US employment data against softer Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. Spot gold advanced around 0.8% towards $4,104/oz, with the decline in the dollar index providing additional support. However, the latest US labour-market data presented a mixed signal for bullion.October non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, significantly exceeding market expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%. The stronger employment reading suggests that the US economy remains relatively resilient, potentially giving the Fed greater flexibility to maintain restrictive monetary conditions.Consequently, expectations of another rate increase in December have strengthened, with markets assigning nearly an 80% probability to a hike. This remains a significant near-term headwind for non-yielding gold, particularly if stronger employment is accompanied by persistent inflation.Nevertheless, softer Treasury yields and dollar weakness have helped bullion recover, highlighting the importance of broader financial conditions alongside interest-rate expectations. Political developments have also influenced market sentiment following Democratic victories in both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections.Markets are reassessing the implications for President Trump’s fiscal and defence spending agenda, government borrowing and broader policy direction. Expectations of greater constraints on additional spending, alongside hopes for diplomatic progress towards ending the Iran conflict, have contributed to lower crude prices and softer Treasury yields, providing some relief to gold.Geopolitical developments surrounding US-Iran relations continue to offer underlying safe-haven support, although any meaningful progress towards de-escalation could reduce immediate defensive demand.At the same time, the ongoing adjustment in global portfolios following the AI-led technology selloff remains a source of volatility, with liquidity requirements and margin-related selling potentially influencing precious-metal positions. Chinese buying and longer-term investment demand could help provide support during corrections.Attention now shifts towards Tuesday’s US CPI release, which will be crucial in determining whether stronger employment is accompanied by renewed inflationary pressure. A higher-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of a December rate hike, strengthen the dollar and push yields higher, potentially limiting gold’s recovery. Conversely, softer inflation could ease monetary-policy concerns and provide further upside momentum.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)