ETF inflows, central-bank buying and softer US data are keeping the medium-term setup constructive.

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are seeing positive momentum, and while volatile, the near-term outlook remains optimistic, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold gained around 0.7% last week and extended the move above $4,400 at the start of this week, briefly testing the $4,450 mark, before Tuesday’s global bond selloff pulled prices back toward 4,340-4,360. The broader trend, however, remains positive. The rally has been supported by softer US inflation and retail-sales data, which reduced expectations of a September Fed hike, alongside a weaker dollar and renewed investor demand.Meanwhile, Global gold ETFs added about $3 billion in July, reversing two months of outflows, while holdings increased by 39 tonnes year-to-date. August flows have also remained positive. Central-bank demand continues to provide a strong floor, with China extending its gold-buying streak to 21 consecutive months.At the same time, rising concerns over fiscal sustainability, bond-market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty are strengthening gold’s diversification appeal. The key counterweight remains higher oil prices and the unresolved US-Iran/Hormuz situation, which could keep inflation expectations elevated and limit the Fed’s ability to ease.

Gold Prices: Key Focus This Week

The immediate trigger is the Fed’s July meeting minutes, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole next week. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 65% probability of a September hold versus 35% for a hike, so any shift in the Fed’s tone could quickly move yields, the dollar and gold. At the same time, oil remaining above $85 and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz could keep inflation risks intact, creating a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and higher-rate expectations.

Gold Price Outlook

The near-term bias remains positive but volatile. Fundamentally, ETF inflows, central-bank buying and softer US data are keeping the medium-term setup constructive, while geopolitical and fiscal risks add another layer of support. Technically, gold holding above $4,290 keeps the rebound intact, with $4,450 the immediate breakout trigger and $4,550 the next psychological/technical hurdle.

Technical Levels:

Gold (Spot) CMP: $4,350/oz

MCX Gold CMP: Rs 1,53,555

International Silver CMP: $62.70/oz

MCX Silver CMP: Rs 2,28,300

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