The surge was largely driven by steep discounts offered on Russian cargoes, a consequence of the G7-led price cap and Europe’s withdrawal from direct purchases. However, the arrangement has created what analysts describe as a “refining loophole”: countries not enforcing sanctions can import discounted Russian crude, refine it, and legally export fuel products at market rates to nations that have imposed restrictions.

Research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) highlights the scale of this shift. In the first nine months of 2024, exports of refined fuels from Jamnagar, Vadinar and Mangalore — all refineries heavily reliant on Russian crude — to the European Union jumped by 58 per cent year-on-year.

Reliance Industries runs the Jamnagar complex, while Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy operates the Vadinar facility. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals is part of state-run ONGC.

As a result, India has become the EU’s largest supplier of refined fuels, with diesel and jet fuel imports from India nearly doubling compared with pre-war averages of 154,000 barrels per day. CREA estimated in an earlier report that oil products worth €8.5 billion imported by the price-cap coalition in the 13 months to December 2023 were derived from Russian crude.

For Moscow, the rerouting of crude to Asia has offset much of the decline in European sales. For India, the trade has provided cheaper feedstock for its refineries and lucrative opportunities in the global fuels market.

Trump, however, cast doubt on the trend. “Well, I understand India no longer is going to be buying oil from Russia. That’s what I heard. I don’t know if that’s right or not, but that’s a good step. We’ll see what happens,” he told reporters on Friday, 1 August.

Indian officials insist otherwise, underscoring that while refiners adjust sourcing patterns in response to price and policy shifts, Russian oil remains a significant part of the country’s energy mix.