ICRA: Indiaโ€™s economic activity shows mixed signals in June; key sectors struggle
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ICRA: Indiaโ€™s economic activity shows mixed signals in June; key sectors struggle

Indiaโ€™s economic activity showed a mixed picture in June, after a clear slowdown in May, according to a recent report by ICRA.While electricity demand showed some improvement in June, daily average vehicle registrations continued to weaken compared to May.Demand for two-wheelers and tractors is likely to improve on the back of rural sentiments, while urban consumption could get a lift from recent income tax cuts and lower borrowing costs, though limited product availability may hold back a stronger recovery.Indiaโ€™s overall economic activity in May had grown at 6.5% year-on-year, a drop from the 7.8% growth seen in April. The dip was largely due to a weaker performance across 10 out of the 15 key economic indicators tracked.One of the biggest drags was the core sector output, which recorded a sluggish 0.7% growth in May, its lowest in nine months. The slowdown came largely from four of the eight core industries. Electricity generation, in particular, shrank by 5.8% due to unusually high rainfall in several regions.Unemployment also edged up in May. The all-India jobless rate rose to 5.6% from 5.1% in April, according to the monthly Periodic Labour Force Survey. Rural areas saw the sharpest rise, likely as a result of the end of the rabi harvest season. However, ICRA said that comparing this yearโ€™s labour market with last year remains difficult due to the lack of comparable data.Other important indicators also reflected a slowdown. Electricity output dropped sharply by 8.6% year-on-year in May, down from a 1.9% decline in April. Coal India Limitedโ€™s production returned to negative territory, slipping 1.4% after a gain of 0.5% the month before.Mobility and transport indicators painted a similar picture. GST e-way bill generation growth dropped to 18.9% from 23.4%. Domestic air passenger traffic slowed to 4.1% from 8.5%, and diesel consumption moderated to 2.2% from 4.3%. Passenger vehicle production growth was halved to 5.4%, while non-oil exports also grew just 5.1%, down from 10.3% in April. This slowdown also weighed on cargo traffic at ports, which eased to 4.3% from 7.0%.Despite these setbacks, a few indicators offered signs of stability. Two-wheeler production turned a corner, rising 4.9% in May compared to a 4.1% decline the previous month. Petrol consumption jumped to 9.2% from 5.0%, benefiting from a favourable base. Vehicle registrations picked up slightly to 5.4% from 3.8%, while finished steel consumption improved to 7.8%, up from 6.0% in April.



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