India-US trade: Exports rebound in November; supply-chain shifts and holiday restocking drive recovery, says GTRI
Indiaโs exports to the US bounced back in November after two months of dip. The rebound was largely supported by supply-chain adjustments and pre-holiday season inventory restocking, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). This recovery came despite the US imposing 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods since August.
November India-US trade snapshot amid higher tariffs
- Exports to the US rose 22.61 per cent in November to $6.98 billion, reversing declines seen between May and September.
- Smartphones (largest export item): Exports fell from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September, before rising to $1.8 billion.
- Gems and jewellery: Slumped from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, then rebounded to $406.2 million.
- Machinery and mechanical appliances: Declined to $516.8 million in September, before nearly returning to peak levels at $614.6 million in November.
- Pharmaceuticals: Shipments rose to $669.2 million in November, but remained below May levels.
- Mineral fuels and oils (tariff-exempt): Fell from $291.5 million in May to $251.5 million in September, before climbing to $274.3 million.
GTRI said supply-chain realignments and pre-holiday inventory restocking, especially in electronics and machinery, supported shipments, but stressed that the rebound reflects adaptation to a harsher tariff regime, leaving Indiaโs export momentum to the US fragile in the months ahead.GTRI said the rebound came after a sharp fall in exports earlier in the year, triggered by uncertainty surrounding impending tariff hikes. GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said US buyers initially delayed orders and ran down inventories. โOnce the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting, absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products,โ he said.However, the think tank also warned that this recovery might not last. They claimed that it was more about adjusting to tougher tariffs rather than a permanent improvement. The think tank also added that businesses were using short-term strategies to cope with the new trade environment.